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Economic Fluctuations in Japan during the Interwar Period -- Re- estimations of the LTES Personal

Author

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  • Kiyohito Utsunomiya

    (Senior Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kiyohito.utsunomiya@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

To date, most research on Interwar Period economic fluctuations in Japan has been based on Estimates of Long-term Economic Statistics of Japan (LTES), edited by Kazushi Ohkawa et al. Regardless, the LTES data are just one set of estimations. They require scrutiny, especially for the measurement of personal consumption, which has a high weight in GNE. This paper re-estimates the LTES personal consumption expenditures by adjusting the estimation methods for certain expense categories and deducting imputations (which may have a large measurement error), and then calculates real GDP (adjusted real GDP) focusing on the market economy. The re-estimation presents no major changes from the LTES in the shape of the economic fluctuations of the 1920s, when the Japanese economy continuously posted gunbalanced growth. h From the Showa Depression forward, however, while the LTES shows continued positive real GDP growth, the re-estimation indicates negative growth in adjusted real GDP in 1931. These findings remain robust after considering the bias from the deflator formula. Given the characteristics of national accounts and the measurement error, these re-estimation results suggest that the severity of the Showa Depression may have been underestimated in the prior research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohito Utsunomiya, 2008. "Economic Fluctuations in Japan during the Interwar Period -- Re- estimations of the LTES Personal," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-06
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    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/08-E-06.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryoji Koike, 2019. "Interpolation of Japan's Household Consumption during World War II," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japanese Economy; Interwar Period; Showa Depression; Great Depression; Personal Consumption; National Accounts; Deflator; Imputation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

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