Inflation Hedge in India-Stocks or Bullion

At a time of runaway inflation, when nothing seems to contain the pace of its gallop, it might be pertinent to look around for an investment which may shield the value of the investor’s money against the devaluing onslaught of inflation gone amuck. In the west common stocks have often been examined as possible hedges against inflation, though other possible hedges such as the bullion have not received the necessary attention. In India however, there is paucity of work done in the very area of inflation hedge itself. This paper therefore empirically investigates common stocks and the bullion as possible inflation hedges in the Indian market. The study regards an asset a hedge against inflation if the rate of increase in its nominal value is greater than the rate of increase in inflation. The methodology thus reduces to regressing the logarithm of the nominal value of the asset on the logrithm of inflation index and test B for being less than or equal to one. The results (based on monthly data for fourteen years) reveal gold to be a consistent inflation hedge, both in the short run and the long run, while silver and common stocks qualify as partial hedges in varying degrees. Also the study clearly reflects the economic stability, apprehensions and the optimism of the Indian market in the pre-emergency, emergency and post-emergency period respectively.