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Quantitative Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Beomsoo Kim

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, South Korea)

  • Sangsoo Park

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, South Korea)

  • Sunbin Kim

    (Department of Economics, Yonsei University, South Korea)

Abstract

Countries are implementing containment policies to fight the coronavirus 2019 pandemic. We extend the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to include asymptomatic cases, which account for around 20%. We consider the cumulative confirmed and death cases in Italy and South Korea for our model estimation. The data for Italy, collated up to March 14, 2020, are not affected by any containment policy, whereas the data for South Korea collated up to the end of April 2020 reflect four containment policies: social distancing, preemptive quarantine, testing and quarantine of symptomatic or asymptomatic patients. Our policy experiments show that the testing and quarantine of symptomatic patients are very effective to contain, but not enough to extinguish, the epidemic. Thus, testing and quarantine should include the asymptomatic cases as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Beomsoo Kim & Sangsoo Park & Sunbin Kim, 2022. "Quantitative Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Policies," Discussion Paper Series 2203, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:2203
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    File URL: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri/WorkingPapers/w2203.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extended SEIR Model; COVID-19; asymptomatic cases;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other

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