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Paradas repentinas, tipo de cambio real y viabilidad fiscal: enseñanzas de Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Izquierdo
  • Ernesto Talvi
  • Guillermo A. Calvo

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Presentamos una explicación alternativa de la caída del programa de convertibilidad de Argentina, basándonos en la vulnerabilidad del país a las paradas repentinas de los flujos de capitales. Las paradas repentinas por lo general van acompañadas de un incremento considerable del tipo de cambio real, lo que provoca el caos en países con pasivos considerablemente dolarizados y hace insostenibles posiciones fiscales y del sector privado por lo demás sostenibles. Subrayamos en particular que la variación necesaria de los precios relativos es mayor mientras más cerrada sea una economía en términos de su oferta de bienes transables. Al contrastar el desempeño de Argentina con el de otros países latinoamericanos que también estuvieron sometidos a la parada repentina provocada por la crisis de Rusia en 1998, identificamos indicadores claves de vulnerabilidad que distinguieron a Argentina de sus pares. También ofrecemos una explicación del torbellino político que se produjo a continuación de la parada repentina, basándonos en un argumento de guerra de desgaste y colapso fiscal. Este marco también aporta elementos para racionalizar la crisis bancaria que acompañó la caída de la convertibilidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Paradas repentinas, tipo de cambio real y viabilidad fiscal: enseñanzas de Argentina," Research Department Publications 4300, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4300
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    References listed on IDEAS

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