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La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en América Latina: El caso argentino

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Centralogo
  • Mario Damill
  • Roberto Frenkel
  • Juan P. Jimenez

Abstract

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar la sensibilidad de las cuentas públicas argentinas en los años noventa respecto a las fluctuaciones del nivel de actividad y otros factores macroeconómicos, y evaluar la sostenibilidad financiera fiscal en el mediano plazo. Se construye para esto un modelo que expresa las componentes desagregadas de ingresos y gastos públicos como funciones de variables macroeconómicas, descompuestas en sus componentes tendencial y cíclica. Con estos instrumentos, se elaboran simulaciones de las series de ingresos, gastos y déficit sobre todo el período 1991-96, ajustadas por el ciclo macroeconómico. El análisis y la comparación de las simulaciones permite discutir las orientaciones de los cambios en la política fiscal y la sensibilidad de las cuentas públicas al ciclo y a los cambios de precios relativos. El mismo modelo es utilizado para realizar proyecciones para el período 1997-2001. Los principales resultados se presentan en el capítulo segundo.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Centralogo & Mario Damill & Roberto Frenkel & Juan P. Jimenez, 1997. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en América Latina: El caso argentino," Research Department Publications 3014, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3014
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Damill, 2005. "The Argentinean Debt: History, Default and Restructuring," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 6(3), pages 29-90.

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