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Agricultural Productivity Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean and Other World Regions: An Analysis of Climatic Effects, Convergence and Catch-up

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  • Lachaud, Michée Arnold
  • Bravo-Ureta, Boris E.
  • Ludeña, Carlos E.

Abstract

This study estimates Climate Adjusted Total Factor Productivity (CATFP) for agriculture in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries, while also providing comparisons with several regions of the world. Climatic variability is introduced in Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) models by including average annual maximum temperature, precipitation and its monthly intra-year standard deviations, and the number of rainy days. Climatic conditions have a negative impact on production becoming stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. An Error Correction Model is applied to investigate catch-up and convergence across LAC countries. Argentina defines the frontier in LAC and TFP convergence is found across all South American countries, Costa Rica, Mexico, Barbados and The Bahamas. Using IPCC 2014 scenarios, the study shows that climatic variability induces significant reductions in productivity (2.3% to 10.7%), over the 2013-2040 period. Estimated output losses due to climatic variability range from 9% to 20% in the LAC region depending on the scenario considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lachaud, Michée Arnold & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E. & Ludeña, Carlos E., 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean and Other World Regions: An Analysis of Climatic Effects, Convergence and Catch-up," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7209, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:7209
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.18235/0000142
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. De los Santos‐Montero & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta, 2017. "Productivity effects and natural resource management: econometric evidence from POSAF‐II in Nicaragua," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 220-233, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Policy; Agricultural Productivity; Climate Variability; Climate Change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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