IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/brikps/10780.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Primary Balance: Sustainability Analysis under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lankester Campos, Valerie
  • Loaiza Marín, Kerry
  • Monge Badilla, Carlos

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sustainability of Costa Rican sovereign debt within the intertemporal budget constraint framework, which is complemented with the estimation of the fiscal reaction function and a risk assessment under the fan chart methodology using annual data from 1974 until 2018. Results show that fiscal behavior has been unsustainable for specific episodes in the long run, and in the short run there have been few instances of debt sustainability since the economic crisis of the early 1980s. Given that a major fiscal reform was approved at the end of 2018, an evaluation of its impact on the path of adjustment of primary balance, considering uncertainty, is included.

Suggested Citation

  • Lankester Campos, Valerie & Loaiza Marín, Kerry & Monge Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Primary Balance: Sustainability Analysis under Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10780, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:10780
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002800
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Primary-Balance-Sustainability-Analysis-under-Uncertainty.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002800?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt sustainability; Primary balance; Fiscal reaction function; Riskassessment; Fan chart;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:10780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Felipe Herrera Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iadbbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.