IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ice/wpaper/wp66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Icelandic boom and bust - Immigration and the housing market

Author

Listed:
  • Lúðvík Elíasson

Abstract

Possible explanations for the rapid increase in house prices and housing investment in Iceland between 2004 and 2007 and the subsequent market crash are studied. The boom was driven in part by banking liberalisation, international financial conditions, and domestic policies. A simple demand and supply model, based on the study by Elíasson and Pétursson (2009), is fitted to data through the recent boom-bust period. The model is remarkably robust through the cycle despite its unprecedented amplitude. However, it does not capture fully the turbulence in housing market data for the period since 2003. Different methods to account for the rapid rise in house prices and housing investment dynamics are compared. The price equation (demand) is improved by including net immigration as an explanatory variable showing that demographic factors, in addition to mortgage market restructuring, help in explaining the apparent bubble in the housing market. The sharp fall in housing investment in 2009 cannot, however, be modelled without the introduction of a dummy variable, accounting for the sudden-stop in financing at the beginning of the financial crisis in Iceland in late 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Lúðvík Elíasson, 2014. "Icelandic boom and bust - Immigration and the housing market," Economics wp66, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    • Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cb.is/library/Skr%C3%A1arsafn---EN/Working-Papers/WP66.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Mr. Calvin Schnure, 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing: The Changing Role of Financial Structure," IMF Working Papers 2005/200, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
    5. Ms. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2013/045, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jeremy J. Siegel, 2003. "What Is an Asset Price Bubble? An Operational Definition," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 11-24, March.
    7. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ms. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2013/045, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Bradley Jones, 2014. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework," IMF Working Papers 2014/208, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2022. "Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-29, January.
    6. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Sebastian Kohl & Florian Müller, 2023. "Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2061, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    10. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
    11. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    12. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047, March.
    13. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2018. "Can bubble theory foresee banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-81.
    14. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    15. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    16. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    17. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    18. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    20. Borio, Claudio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225, pages 3-13, August.
    21. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Central Bank of Iceland (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedgvis.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.