Die Auswirkungen von Zöllen der USA auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland

"This report analyses the effects of possible US-tariff increases and possible counter-tariffs by the affected trading partners on the labour market and economy in Germany. The calculations used in this research report are based on across-the-board tariff increases of 25 percent. This order of magnitude is assumed as there is uncertainty at the time of reporting as to whether announcements will continue to change or tariff rates will still be adjusted in negotiations. To this end, a scenario analysis is conducted in which two alternative scenarios with higher tariffs are compared to a reference scenario without a tariff increase. The first alternative scenario (‘Scenario 1’) assumes a 25 percent tariff increase in addition to the existing tariffs for Chinese, Mexican, Canadian and European imports into the USA. The countries considered account for almost three quarters of German exports. The revenue generated by these tariffs is assumed to flow back into the US economy. In the second scenario (‘Scenario 2’), the European Union (EU), China, Canada and Mexico are expected to take countermeasures by increasing tariffs on US imports by 25 per cent each. These countermeasures are considered in addition to the US tariff increases. The resulting revenues are also assumed to flow back into the respective economy. The effects are generally negative. This applies not only to Germany, but also to other countries (Mexico, China, Canada, the rest of the EU) and to global trade as a whole. Assuming that there are no further tariff changes, nominal global trade will be 6.5 per cent lower in Scenario 2 than in the reference scenario one year after the 25 per cent tariff increase comes into force. Compared to a scenario without tariff increases, German gross domestic product (GDP) would be lower than in the reference scenario in both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. This is partly due to a significant fall in German exports and partly to second and third-round effects. In Scenario 2, GDP would be 1.2 per cent lower one year after the tariff increase comes into force. The assumed tariffs from both alternative scenarios are also likely to have negative effects on the labour market in Germany. The negative effects will increase over time. As a result of the assumed tariff increases, the demand for labour could be lower by 90,000 people after one years. The economic sectors and occupations most affected by the tariffs are primarily to be found in the manufacturing industry, but also in the business-related service sectors. The occupations most affected in production such as technical occupations in machine-building and automotive industry or occupations in metal-making and -working, and in metal construction can be explained by the high number of employees in manufacture of machinery, equipment and motor vehicles. At the same time, demand for business-related services, trade, accommodation and food services is declining, which is having a negative impact on the occupations typically found in these sectors, such as purchasing, sales and trading occupations as well as occupations in tourism, hotels and restaurants. The occupations business management and organisation, traffic and logistics as well as drivers and operators of vehicles and transport equipment are among the most affected occupations due to the generally weaker economic situation. Germany's export losses could possibly be offset by higher exports to other countries. However, an additional calculation shows that this would require considerable effort. A 50 per cent reduction in import tariffs for major trading partners could reduce Germany's export losses, but not fully compensate for them. Nevertheless, actively strengthening and promoting free trade agreements can stabilise trade." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))