Aktuelle Folgen des Klimawandels für den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt

"Climate change is already having noticeable effects on the German labour market. In particular, rising temperatures and more frequent heat waves are affecting sectors such as construction and agriculture. Other sectors such as services, logistics, tourism, and manufacturing are also affected. Empirical evidence suggests that this leads to health risks, higher accident rates, and an increase in sick days. This can negatively impact productivity and cause economic costs, job losses, and indirect negative effects along value chains. In addition to extreme heat, droughts are also becoming more frequent and intense, with severe consequences for food production and energy supply. The extreme droughts and heatwaves of recent years have highlighted the urgent need for adaptation measures. Both technical solutions and economic incentives should be considered to ensure both ecological and economic stability. Another consequence of climate change is the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events such as storms, heavy rainfall, and floods, which caused damages amounting to around 145 billion euros in Germany alone between 2000 and 2021. These damages and the subsequent reconstruction efforts have both direct and indirect effects on the labour market, particularly in construction (e.g., through flood protection measures or civil and structural engineering) and in the healthcare sector. In the coming decades, the impacts of climate change are expected to intensify. An analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research predicts a decline in Germany's gross domestic product of up to eleven percent by 2050. According to the study, economic impacts will vary regionally, with changing precipitation patterns potentially having positive effects locally. Nevertheless, extreme weather events are increasing and causing significant economic damage. Occupational groups directly exposed to weather conditions are particularly affected, including workers in agriculture, forestry, construction, and poorly heat-protected indoor spaces. Survey data from 2006, 2012, and 2018 show, however, that employees in Germany have not yet perceived heat as a significant burden. Interestingly, the number of hot days is increasing, while the proportion of employees who feel negatively affected by weather conditions is decreasing. The impacts also vary by company size, as financial resources and adaptability are crucial for resilience to climate change. International research on natural disasters provides insights into labour market effects that are also relevant for Germany. For example, climate-related disasters can trigger long-term migration and cause short-term income losses that can only be compensated for in the long term. At the same time, companies involved in reconstruction can benefit economically from these developments. The use of seasonal short-time work benefits in Germany also provides insights into economic adaptations to climate change: The relative share of employees in the construction industry claiming this benefit decreased between 2012 and 2023. This decline is consistent with increasingly milder winters, which allow for longer working periods. In the long term, the adaptability of companies and employees will be crucial for the direct impacts of climate change on the German labour market. Measures to repair damage caused by climate change or economic transformation processes that increase resilience to climate change and serve climate protection can also lead to positive effects such as the emergence of new business sectors and the creation of new jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))