Auswirkungen des Strukturwandels auf die Arbeitsmarktregionen und Bundesländer in der langen Frist – Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektion bis 2040

"The federal states and labour market regions in Germany differ in terms of their population and economic structure and therefore also exhibit different labour shortages and surpluses. Due to their varying trajectories, differences in labour market developments will remain in the future. Applying the QuBe model system (8th wave of the QuBe baseline projection), long-term immanent megatrends such as demographic development, economic structural change and digitalization are captured within the model, making their effects on the economy and labour market visible. The analysis shows that the economic situation in Germany will not recover as it did in the past, since the positive developments in foreign trade are no longer occurring. The increased uncertainty about the actions of the future US administration is also unlikely to provide more stability and predictability. In addition, future labour market developments will be shaped to a large extent by demographic trends, ongoing structural change (e.g. digitalization in retail) and weaker demand in the construction industry. As a result of the population decline in many federal states and labour market regions, the labour supply will decrease by 2040. Although some regions will still be able to increase their population, the working-age population will decline in almost all of them. Hence, the demand for labour will also decrease in almost all regions. Consequently, the unemployment rate will fall or remain nearly stable in many federal states and labour market regions, meaning that labour shortages in various economic sectors and occupations can still be expected despite the weaker economic development. The recruitment of workers is therefore likely to become increasingly difficult in many economic sectors and regions in the longer term. The need for personnel in the “residential care and social work activities” sector or in the IT services sector is growing continuously and is dependent on qualified workers. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of structural change that is likely to accelerate even further and is already posing major challenges, particularly for the federal states and labour market regions in which the manufacturing and automotive industries continue to have above-average shares. Increasing digitalization and decarbonization require the German economy to constantly modernize and innovate. The ecological transformation in particular is heavily reliant on workers in the construction industry. Training in this area remains important because the recruitment situation for companies will remain difficult in the future compared to other professions, despite the likely long-term decline in employment. Should additional investments be necessary, for example in the course of this transformation, they should not be hindered by a lack of skilled workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))