Migrationswirkungen des 2020 in Kraft getretenen Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetzes

"In March 2020, Germany made changes to its system for managing labour migration with the introduction of the Skilled Immigration Act (Fachkräfteinwanderungsgesetz, FEG). These changes focused primarily on easing immigration requirements for skilled workers with vocational training, reducing formal barriers to migration and simplifying procedures, for example in the recognition of foreign qualifications. The main aim of the FEG was to attract a larger number of migrant workers from non-EU countries. It was implemented against the backdrop of demographic change and an increasing shortage of skilled workers on the German labour market, with a simultaneous decline in immigration from EU countries. This research report examines whether the introduction of the FEG has actually increased labour migration from outside the EU to Germany. To this end, administrative data is used to investigate whether more work-related residence permits were issued to third-country nationals as a result of the FEG. However, estimating the causal effect of the FEG is complicated by two challenges: First, the FEG affected potential migrants in all non-EU countries equally. A simple comparison of migration from affected and non-affected countries of origin is therefore not possible. The study therefore develops a novel estimation approach that instead compares countries of origin that are more or less affected. The extent to which a country of origin is affected by the FEG reforms is approximated on the basis of its migration potential. Migration potential is measured with the help of global surveys that provide information on the proportion of a country of origin's population that would like to emigrate to Germany. If the FEG has lowered the barriers to labour migration, then the effect should be greater for countries in which there are more people willing to migrate to Germany – and correspondingly smaller in countries with low potential. However, it is possible that labour migration from countries with greater migration potential was already following a rising trend before the FEG, which would have continued even without its introduction. This study explicitly examines such trends and discusses the extent to which they can lead to distortions in the estimated effect. In addition, a so-called instrument-variable approach (IV) is implemented. In this approach, the migration potential of the countries of origin for Germany is approximated in a first step by the migration potential of other comparable destination countries in Europe. This reduces specific migration trends between the countries of origin and Germany. Furthermore, placebo tests are carried out using data on residence permits without reference to employment. As these were not directly affected by the reforms of the FEG, it should not be possible to measure any effect for them - otherwise this would be an indication that the chosen method only depicts general migration trends and not the effect of the FEG. The second challenge is that the FEG came into force in March 2020 at the same time as the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, as a result of which immigration to Germany plummeted due to travel restrictions. A robustness analysis therefore examines whether the estimated effect of the FEG could be distorted by a catch-up effect after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, which in turn could be correlated with the migration potential of the countries of origin. Overall, the results show that the FEG had a significant positive effect on labour migration from third countries to Germany. Depending on the migration potential of the countries of origin, the entry into force of the FEG explains between 10 and 70 percent of the increase in residence permits issued for employment purposes. If the migration potential is based on the median of the countries of origin and the effect is extrapolated to all countries of origin, the FEG can explain around 10,500 or 31 percent of the new work-related residence permits issued in 2022. However, this figure is only valid under strong assumptions and should therefore not be seen as an exact estimate, but merely as a guideline for the approximate order of magnitude of the absolute effect of the FEG. The placebo and robustness checks indicate that the estimated effects actually reflect causal effects of the FEG. Like all empirical evaluations, the results are only valid under the assumptions made and are subject to a certain statistical uncertainty. However, the significance analyses show that it can be assumed with a very high degree of probability that the FEG had a positive effect. Nevertheless, even after the introduction of the FEG, labour migration from third countries is still far from reaching the level that would be necessary to offset the consequences of demographic change for the German labour market in the long term and stabilize the labour force potential at its current level. More far-reaching reforms would therefore be necessary if the political goal is to further increase managed labour migration from third countries in the long term. These should include further simplification of formal immigration requirements and the recognition of foreign qualifications. In addition, active efforts to recruit and support foreign skilled workers would be necessary. This could include services that provide targeted support for those interested in migrating and their accompanying family members in finding a job in Germany and in finding their bearings after arrival - for example, through more intensive support for German courses in the country of origin or after arrival in finding their way around the housing market or in the search for childcare options. The promotion of a welcoming and tolerant society in Germany also seems necessary in order to promote sustainable integration and maintain Germany's attractiveness as a destination country." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))