Evaluation der Erweiterung der Berufseinstiegsbegleitung: Evidenz für Westdeutschland

"One of the biggest contemporary challenges in labor market policy is the current and future shortage of skilled workers. Against this backdrop, it is astonishing that in Germany, apprenticeship training positions are currently unfilled while at the same time, about 29,000 candidates cannot find any apprenticeship training. This discrepancy could be resolved or at least mitigated, for instance, through active labor market policy. This research report therefore examines the effects of the so-called Berufseinstiegsbegleitung, a funding initiative by the Federal Employment Agency (BA) to facilitate the transition from school to the labor market. This program takes place in schools and is offered in addition to the vocational orientation measures of the respective schools. It aims to help disadvantaged young people (1) achieve a school-leaving certificate and (2) navigate the complex transition to the training market. The main focus of this program should be on those young people who are at risk of not finding a training position due to a lack of parental support or poor academic performance. In this research report, I examine the expansion of the Berufseinstiegsbegleitung from 2015, which was implemented in economically weaker regions through co-financing by the European Social Fund. Economically weaker regions are defined at the level of government districts (or EU NUTS2 regions). Within economically weak regions, there can also be economically stronger districts that receive additional support despite their economic strength. Conversely, within economically stronger regions, there can be districts that would qualify for additional support due to their low economic strength if the decision were not made at the government district level. These districts serve as the control group in this study. My empirical approach compares the results at the district-year level for this control group with the results of districts that received additional funding. For reasons of causal identification, I only consider West Germany. The method for estimating a causal effect of career entry support on educational and training market outcomes is the synthetic difference-in-differences design. The calculation of the causal effect is based on a plausibly exogenous variation in the allocation of additional funds for career entry support in economically weak districts. For the analyses, I use administrative data from the IAB, aggregated at the district-year level. The expansion results in a program participation rate increase of about 8 percentage points or 60 percent in the treatment districts relative to the year before the expansion and the control districts. The total costs of the program nearly doubled in the districts with additional financial resources by the end of the observation period. Despite this significant increase in participation rates and total costs, I find no effect of the expansion of the Berufseinstiegsbegleitung on educational qualifications and labor market outcomes, such as starting a training program within the next year. I discuss possible reasons for the results, focusing primarily on the following four points: (1) The continuity of Berufseinstiegsbegleitung and its personnel, (2) Financial incentives for participants, such as providing a monthly pass for public transportation, (3) Contact initiatives after leaving the school where Berufseinstiegsbegleitung was offered, and (4) The absence of intermediate goals before completing school. In summary, it becomes clear that Berufseinstiegsbegleitung – theoretically a very sensible program – has much potential for improvement. Ultimately, a combination of difficulties in implementation, the absence of clearly defined interim objectives before completing school, and funding issues could lead to a potentially valuable program disappearing from the funding landscape." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))