Arbeitskräftebedarf und Arbeitskräfteangebot entlang der Wertschöpfungskette Wasserstoff: Szenario-v2.1

"Hydrogen has the potential to contribute to achieving the climate targets. At the same time, it can reduce dependencies on supplier countries for fossil fuels and fossil-based raw materials. As part of the project ‘Labor demand and labour supply along the hydrogen value chain’ funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), this research report uses a scenario analysis to describe the impacts of establishing a value chain for green hydrogen on economic output and the labor market in Germany by 2045. The hydrogen value chain includes the production of hydrogen, its use as an energy carrier and raw material, the production of and investment in hydrogen technologies, the development of a hydrogen infrastructure, the further processing of hydrogen into hydrogen derivates such as ammonia or methanol and, last but not least, the education sector for the transfer of hydrogen skills. Based on macroeconomic modelling, a scenario without the development of a hydrogen economy (baseline scenario) and a scenario containing assumptions on the development of a hydrogen economy (alternative scenario ‘Hydrogen Scenario 2.1’) are compared. The alternative scenario is based on the ‘Hydrogen Scenario 2.0’, which was previously published in a BIBB discussion paper. The assumptions of the precedent scenario were updated and extended. The results show that the development of a hydrogen economy will have a positive impact on the price-adjusted gross domestic product by 2035. Additional gross fixed capital formation in construction, machinery and equipment as well as higher household final consumption expenditures boost GDP. From 2036 onwards, the positive stimulus weakens and an overall negative impact on GDP prevails. Higher imports are mainly responsible for this negative impact. Over the entire projection period from 2024 to 2045, GDP is nevertheless 4.1 billion euros higher on average (+0.1 percent per year). The development of a hydrogen economy shows a positive impact on the labor market in terms of employment. Between 2024 and 2045 an average of around 57’000 additional persons are expected to be employed in comparison to the baseline scenario. In absolute terms, the construction sector in particular has a higher demand for labor which is related to the expansion of renewable energies for green hydrogen production and the development of an infrastructure for hydrogen. Positive impacts can also be observed on labor demand in architectural and engineering activities, technical testing and analysis, education as well as in manufacture of machinery and equipment. In the medium term, there will be a lower demand for labor in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products although this will be relativised in the long term. Deviations by occupational groups show, inter alia, a higher demand in administrative professions as well as in various occupations related to the construction sector. There are already signs of shortages in many of these occupational groups today which can delay the development of a hydrogen economy. The sensitivity analysis illustrates the importance of electricity prices and the entailed costs for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives on the economic and labor market impact. With an assumption of 20 percent lower electricity prices for electrolysis abroad, German GDP will be on average 7.7 billion euros higher by 2045 and the number of employed persons will be on average around 66’000 higher than in the baseline scenario. With 40 percent lower electricity prices, German GDP will be on average 11.2 billion euros higher by 2045 and the number of employed persons by around 76’000. The lower the costs for hydrogen, the higher the outcome for GDP and employment figures. The crucial point in the scenario comparison is, however, the relative costs of hydrogen and hydrogen derivates to fossil fuels and fossil-based raw materials. Hence, a shift towards alternative energy carriers and raw materials might be also economically beneficial in case of stronger price increases for fossil fuels and fossil-based raw materials. Government measures can contribute to initiate a market-based dynamic in the ecological transition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))