Auswirkungen des Angriffskrieges auf die Ukraine auf die Betriebe in Deutschland und weitere Ergebnisse des IAB-Betriebspanels 2022

"The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine has had considerable impact on the German economy. This report analyzes how different business areas have been affected by the war and provides some indication to what extent the German economy has been impacted. To distinguish the extent of the economic impact, three categories are defined, based on the self-assessment of the establishments: (i) not negatively affected establishments, (ii) negatively affected establishments, and (iii) severely negatively affected establishments. On the one hand, the results do not reveal any marked differences between western and eastern Germany on how establishments have been economically affected by the war of aggression on Ukraine. In both parts of Germany, almost half of the establishments reported negative economic effects related to the war. On the other hand, the results show large differences between industry sectors. More energy-intensive industries in particular have been affected severely. This observation can be explained by the high portion of German establishments reporting higher costs for energy and fuel as well as higher costs for upstream services or raw materials. Additionally, the results show that establishments with a higher export quota, and thus a higher dependency on international relationships, were on average more likely to be economically negative affected by the war of aggression on Ukraine. Furthermore, the analysis reveals, at the time of the survey, an increasing share of economically negative affected establishments expecting a decrease in sales volumes for the current fiscal year and a declining number of employees until June 2023. Thus, the analysis indicates that especially for these establishments the negative effects due to the war of aggression were likely to increase. An additional topic linked to the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine is the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the German labor market. The results show that on average 7 percent of German establishments have received job inquiries from Ukrainian refugees in 2022. The share is higher for larger establishments. This observation also holds true for the share of establishments that have actually employed Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, the study shows that the employment of refugees is limited to a few industries. Also, the need for skilled workers poses a major challenge to the German economy. Three-fifths of eastern and western German establishments were expecting difficulties in covering their need for skilled workers in the next two years. Covering the current need for skilled labor is already a challenge for German establishments as they are facing high vacancy rates for skilled worker positions. This applies particularly to smaller establishments and the construction industry. Additionally, it is becoming increasingly difficult for establishments to cover their need for skilled workers through their own vocational training. In 2022, the share of establishments with vacant positions for vocal training increased compared to the previous year, particularly in western Germany. The two most important reasons for vacant vocational training positions are the general lack of applicants and the lack of suitable applicants in particular. Despite all of the negative effects described above, some positive developments for the German economy can be observed even though the war started at a time when the German economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the share of establishments with a positive business result has recently increased after the declines in the 2019 and 2020, for both establishments in western and eastern Germany. The improved financial situation of establishments has not yet affected their investment rates, but already impacts the German labor market: total employment is increasing stronger than in the previous years and recruitment and departure rates are also increasing. Additionally, while the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected the establishment-sponsored training, more recent developments are positive. Even though the pre-pandemic level has not been reached yet, the share of establishments promoting continuing training for their employees and continuing training rate have increased in 2022. However, it is becoming apparent that this recovery in continuing training activities is not accompanied by a change in the structure of the continuing training participants. In 2022, employees working on unskilled and semi-skilled jobs received the least training." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))