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Inflation Targeting In Emerging Markets: The Global Experience

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  • John B. Taylor

    (Stanford University
    Hoover Institution)

Abstract

This paper assesses the emerging market experience with inflation targeting in recent years. It places this experience in the broader context of global monetary policy. It shows that a shift away from rules based policy by many developed country central banks has adversely affected the inflation targeting performance of the emerging market countries. First, it has created direct economic spillovers, which have blurred the good effects of inflation targeting. Second, it has led to policy spillovers in which emerging market central banks have been driven to deviate from their inflation targeting rules. The implication of this research is that emerging market countries should stick to the type of inflation targeting they adopted a decade or more ago with macroprudential policy simply focused on getting the overall risk environment right.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Taylor, 2014. "Inflation Targeting In Emerging Markets: The Global Experience," Economics Working Papers 14112, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:14112
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    3. Taylor, John B., 1985. "International coordination in the design of macroeconomic policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 53-81.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2014. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.),Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 3, pages 61-116, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Michel Bordo & John Lando-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 710, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Ahrend, Rudiger, 2010. "Monetary ease: A factor behind financial crises? Some evidence from OECD countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-30.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Addo, 2018. "Policy regime changes and central bank prefernces," Working Papers 752, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Adler, Gustavo & Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2019. "Foreign exchange intervention and inflation targeting: The role of credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    4. Adler, Gustavo & Chang, Kyun Suk & Wang, Zijiao, 2021. "Patterns of foreign exchange intervention under inflation targeting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    5. Enrique A. López-Enciso & Hernando Vargas-Herrera & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "La estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia. Una visión histórica," Borradores de Economia 952, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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