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Performance Analysis of Liquidity Indicators as Early Warning Signals

Author

Listed:
  • Chung-Hua Shen

    (National Taiwan University and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Ting-Hsuan Chen

    (Providence University)

Abstract

This study compares the performance of an old liquidity ratio (LiqR) and two new liquidity indicators, namely, liquidity creation (LiqC) and net stable funding difference (NSFD), in sending early warning signals for distressed banks. Recent evidence shows that the old indicator appears incapable of measuring the liquidity condition of banks. However, the two new indicators have not yet been fully examined in terms of their possible role as indicators. We classify distressed banks into banks that have experienced a bank run, bailout, and failure. Sample data are collected from the United States and the European Union from before and after the crisis (2005-2009). We estimate a model using a sample before the crisis to predict liquidity shortages in 2008 and 2009. Evidence shows that the academic (LiqC) and officially recommended indicators (NSFD) outperform LiqR as early warning signal. Furthermore, LiqC is superior when banks actively engage in income diversification but not when banks engage in fund diversification. Therefore, a well income-diversified bank with a high LiqC tends to have a high distress probability in subsequent periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Hua Shen & Ting-Hsuan Chen, 2014. "Performance Analysis of Liquidity Indicators as Early Warning Signals," Working Papers 302014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:302014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carmela D’Avino & Eric Girardin & Mimoza Shabani, 2022. "Bank liquidity creation: A new global dataset for developing and emerging countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 529-570, May.
    2. Gupta, Juhi & Kashiramka, Smita & Ly, Kim Cuong & Pham, Ha, 2023. "The interrelationship between bank capital and liquidity creation: A non-linear perspective from the Asia-Pacific region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 793-820.
    3. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Basel 3: Does One Size Really Fit All Banks' Business Models?," Working Paper series 16-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Giovanni Ferri & Marco Savioli, 2022. "Regulatory reform and banking diversity: reassessing Basel 3," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 429-456, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity Creation; Net Stable Funding Difference; Liquidity Ratio; Funding Diversification; Income Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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