IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/022010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Information Content of Order Flow and Cross-market Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence for the Chinese Stock, Treasury and Corporate Bond Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Girardin

    (GREQAM ,Universitˆm de la Mˆmditerranˆme-Aix Marseille II ,Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Dijun Tan

    (GREQAM ,Universitˆm de la Mˆmditerranˆme-Aix Marseille II ,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China)

  • Woon K. Wong

    (University of the West of England)

Abstract

This paper examines the within-market and cross-market information content of order flow for stocks, corporate bonds and Treasury bonds in China. With daily-aggregated tick-by-tick data over three years on the Shanghai Security Exchange, we find negative cross-asset effects of order flow on returns, both between stocks and bonds and between corporate and Treasury bonds. Our results provide evidence that not only cross-market portfolio rebalancing under general market conditions, but also flight-to-quality, which occurs particularly under extreme market conditions, are responsible for the cross-market effects of order flow. In particular, while Treasury bonds play a dominant role in stock-bond portfolio rebalancing, corporate bonds can replace Treasury bonds as a safe ¡§haven¡¨ during extreme stock market conditions or during a fall in Treasury bond market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Girardin & Dijun Tan & Woon K. Wong, 2010. "Information Content of Order Flow and Cross-market Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence for the Chinese Stock, Treasury and Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 022010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:022010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/108/ub_full_0_2_235_wp-no-02_2010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    6. Houweling, Patrick & Mentink, Albert & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Comparing possible proxies of corporate bond liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1331-1358, June.
    7. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zou, Li-Ping, 2008. "How do policy and information shocks impact co-movements of China's T-bond and stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 347-359, March.
    8. Kalok Chan & Albert J. Menkveld & Zhishu Yang, 2008. "Information Asymmetry and Asset Prices: Evidence from the China Foreign Share Discount," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 159-196, February.
    9. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957.
    10. Harford, Jarrad & Kaul, Aditya, 2005. "Correlated Order Flow: Pervasiveness, Sources, and Pricing Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 29-55, March.
    11. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    12. Sheng, Hsiao-Ching & Tu, Anthony H., 2000. "A study of cointegration and variance decomposition among national equity indices before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 345-365, December.
    13. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. "Bond Price Data and Bond Market Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 367-378, September.
    14. Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
    15. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    16. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    17. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Bailey, Warren & Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan Leung & Wang, Fenghua, 2009. "Stock returns, order imbalances, and commonality: Evidence on individual, institutional, and proprietary investors in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 9-19, January.
    19. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 511-526, July.
    20. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    21. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    22. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    23. Underwood, Shane, 2009. "The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 268-289, May.
    24. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2623-2654 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Chan, Kalok & Menkveld, Albert J. & Yang, Zhishu, 2007. "The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors' stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 391-415, November.
    27. Paul Schultz, 2001. "Corporate Bond Trading Costs: A Peek Behind the Curtain," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 677-698, April.
    28. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    29. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Ukhov, Andrey D., 2009. "Stock and Bond Market Liquidity: A Long-Run Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 189-212, February.
    30. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    31. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    2. Qin Lei & Xuewu Wang, 2012. "Flight to liquidity due to heterogeneity in investment horizon," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 316-350, August.
    3. Múnera, Daimer J. & Agudelo, Diego A., 2022. "Who moved my liquidity? Liquidity evaporation in emerging markets in periods of financial uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Pan, Beier, 2023. "The asymmetric dynamics of stock–bond liquidity correlation in China: The role of macro-financial determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Chordia, Tarun & Sarkar, Asani & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "The Joint Dynamics of Liquidity, Returns, and Volatility Across Small and Large Firms," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6z81z2wc, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2020. "On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    8. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2020. "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 689-746.
    9. Rösch, Christoph G. & Kaserer, Christoph, 2013. "Market liquidity in the financial crisis: The role of liquidity commonality and flight-to-quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2284-2302.
    10. Rösch, Christoph G. & Kaserer, Christoph, 2014. "Reprint of: Market liquidity in the financial crisis: The role of liquidity commonality and flight-to-quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-170.
    11. Fecht, Falko & Füss, Roland & Rindler, Philipp B., 2014. "Corporate Transparency and Bond Liquidity," Working Papers on Finance 1404, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2016. "On the intensity of liquidity spillovers in the Eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 388-405.
    13. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Underwood, Shane, 2009. "The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 268-289, May.
    15. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. K. Lebedeva, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Russian Financial Markets’ Liquidity and Returns," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 5-31.
    17. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    18. Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theo E. & Simon, Zorka, 2017. "The missing piece of the puzzle: Liquidity premiums in inflation-indexed markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 183, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    19. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    20. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Order Flow; Portfolio Rebalancing; Flight-to-quality; Chinese Financial Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:022010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.