IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkg/wpaper/1005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Analytical Framework for the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics under Strong Capital Inflows

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Wai-Yip Alex Ho

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Yue Ma

    (Lingnan University)

  • Shu-Ki Tsang

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

Abstract

Between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the end of 2009, the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking was triggered repeatedly with remarkable capital inflows into the Hong Kong dollar. In view of this development, this paper proposes an analytical framework to understand the relationship between a two-sided target zone regime and equity market. The framework features non-trivial portfolio choices among risk-free bonds and risky assets offered in the domestic and foreign economies, where the exchange rate between the two economies is managed through a two-sided target zone regime. Our simulation results show that the equity-return differential between the two economies serves as a counter-balance factor of the risk-free interest-rate differential in determining the movements of the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Yue Ma & Shu-Ki Tsang, 2010. "An Analytical Framework for the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics under Strong Capital Inflows," Working Papers 1005, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:1005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/research/working-papers/HKMAWP10_05_full.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Jong, F, 1994. "A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 31-45, Jan.-Marc.
    2. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
    3. Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 2002. "Currency substitution and speculative attacks on a currency board system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-78, February.
    4. Yue Ma & Shu-ki Tsang & Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho, 2010. "A Target-Zone Model with Two Types of Assets," Working Papers 302010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yue Ma & Shu-ki Tsang & Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho, 2010. "A Target-Zone Model with Two Types of Assets," Working Papers 302010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. José Torres, 2007. "A non-parametric analysis of ERM exchange rate fundamentals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 67-84, April.
    3. Consuelo Gámez Amián & José L. Torres, 2004. "A Non-parametric reassessment of target zone nonlinearities: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark exchange rate," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/73, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    4. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    5. Shucheng Liu & Zhijun Zhao & Yue Ma & Matthew S. Yiu & Yak-yeow Kueh & Shu-ki Tsang, 2002. "The Full Convertibility of Renminbi: Sequencing and Influence," Working Papers 092002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Sun, Huayu & Ma, Yue, 2005. "Policy strategies to deal with revaluation pressures on the renminbi," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 103-117.
    7. Yue Ma & Shu-ki Tsang & Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho, 2010. "A Target-Zone Model with Two Types of Assets," Working Papers 302010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Eyal Neuman & Alexander Schied, 2018. "Protecting Pegged Currency Markets from Speculative Investors," Papers 1801.07784, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    9. Arai, Yoichi, 2016. "Testing For Linearity In Regressions With I(1) Processes," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 111-138, June.
    10. Geoffrey Poitras & John Heaney, 2015. "Classical Ergodicity and Modern Portfolio Theory," Post-Print hal-03680380, HAL.
    11. repec:cbk:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:2:p:71-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yu‐Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Informal one‐sided target zone model and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1130-1153, November.
    13. Forde, Martin & Kumar, Rohini & Zhang, Hongzhong, 2015. "Large deviations for the boundary local time of doubly reflected Brownian motion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 262-268.
    14. Angelos Kanas & Yue Ma, 2004. "Intrinsic bubbles revisited: evidence from nonlinear cointegration and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 237-250.
    15. Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y., 2005. "How They Interact to Generate Persistency in Memory," Working Papers 2005-01, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
    17. Yue Ma & Guy Meredith & Matthew S. Yiu, 2002. "A Currency Board Model of Hong Kong," Working Papers 012002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    18. Gilles Dufrenot & Elisabeth Grimaud & Eugénie Latil & Valerie Mignon, 2008. "Modelling The Slow Mean‐Reversion Of The Central And Eastern European Countries' Real Exchange Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(1), pages 21-43, January.
    19. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2013. "Exchange rates in target zones: Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kwan Wai Ko & Jagdish Handa, 2006. "Currency Substitution in a Currency Board Context: The Evidence for Hong Kong," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 39-56.
    22. Eslamloueyan , Karim & Yazdanpanah , Hamideh, 2013. "The Contribution of Observed and Unobserved Fundamentals to Exchange Rate Movements in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(3), pages 89-115, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hong Kong dollar; target zone; uncovered interest rate parity; capital inflows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:1005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Chan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/magovhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.