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Benchmarking Model of Default Probabilities of Listed Companies

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  • Cho-hoi Hui

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper presents a benchmarking model for validation of default probabilities of listed companies for Basel II purposes. The model is based on the recent studies on the predictive capability of structural credit risk models. Benchmark ratings and one-year default probabilities are assigned to companies by mapping the term structures of default probabilities of the companies generated by a structural model based on stochastic leverage ratios to the term structures of default rates reported by rating agencies. The empirical results show that the benchmarking model have adequate discriminatory power of ranking credit risk. The association between the benchmark ratings and external credit ratings is statistically significant. Benchmark default probabilities obtained from the model could thus be used as external and independent estimates for comparisons with banks' internal default probability estimates. Significant deviations from this benchmark provide a reason to review the internal estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho-hoi Hui, 2005. "Benchmarking Model of Default Probabilities of Listed Companies," Working Papers 0506, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0506
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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/RM06-2005.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Eisl, Alexander & Elendner, Hermann W. & Lingo, Manuel, 2015. "Re-Mapping Credit Ratings," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 492, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    2. C. F. Lo & T. C. Wong & C. H. Hui & M. X. Huang, 2008. "Assessing Credit Risk of Companies with Mean-Reverting Leverage Ratios," Working Papers 042008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Ming Xi Huang, 2010. "Modelling Default Correlations in a Two-Firm Model with Dynamic Leverage Ratios," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 15, July-Dece.
    4. T. C. Wong & C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo, 2009. "Discriminatory Power and Predictions of Defaults of Structural Credit Risk Models," Working Papers 342009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Ming Xi Huang, 2010. "Modelling Default Correlations in a Two-Firm Model with Dynamic Leverage Ratios," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2010, January-A.
    6. François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Working Paper Research 118, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Eric Wong & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2009. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Interaction between Market and Credit Risks," Working Papers 0906, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

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