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新型コロナウイルス感染拡大に伴うgdpの減少と企業の倒産に関する一考察

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  • 平峰, 芳樹

Abstract

本稿では新型コロナウイルス感染症に伴う休業・自粛で起きる「売上蒸発」の状況におけるGDPの減少額及び倒産危険企業数の推計を行った．売上高と売上原価のみ用いたシミュレーションから，現預金や助成金を用いたシミュレーション，さらに売上高の減少率の時系列で変化させたシミュレーションと，複数のシナリオでの推計を行った．それぞれのシナリオで推計結果は大きく異なるものであった．しかし，どのシナリオを採用しても，時間の経過とともに企業への影響は大きく広がっていくことがわかった．想定するシナリオを拡大し，新型コロナウイルス感染拡大による経済への打撃を想定した政策立案が求められるだろう．

Suggested Citation

  • 平峰, 芳樹, 2020. "新型コロナウイルス感染拡大に伴うgdpの減少と企業の倒産に関する一考察," TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series J-2020-01, Teikoku Databank Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:tdbcdp:j-2020-01
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