消費税における閾値と小規模企業の集積 : 2019年増税への展望, Bunching of Small Businesses at the Value-Added Tax Threshold in Japan: Lessons for the 2019 Tax Hike

本稿は帝国データバンクの大規模データを用い消費税の免税点の影響を検証する。集積動機を明らかにするため、2014年の消費税増税を準実験の機会と捉え、集積推計法を用い企業度数分布の歪みを増税前後で比較する。分布が益税の増加に反応していないことから、事務負担回避が集積の理由だと示唆される。また、歪みが発生させる経済的損失を考察するため、集積行動の形態も検討する。間接的エビデンスは租税回避を示唆している。推計では、免税点は約5万7千社の行動を歪ませ、それに伴い毎年170億円規模の益税が発生している。, We examine the behavior of small firms near the exemption threshold under Japan's value-added tax (VAT). We employ Teikoku Data Bank's large-scale firm database and find visible bunching of firms just below the threshold of 10 million yen. To better understand the motive for bunching, we utilize the 2014 VAT hike as a quasi-experiment, since it increased the financial benefit of VAT exemption. Despite the increased financial incentive, the relative bunching mass remains unchanged, suggesting that the cost of complying with tax regulations motivates the bunching behavior. We also consider whether those bunching firms make real adjustments or conduct tax avoidance. We find indirect evidence favoring the tax-avoidance hypothesis. Our estimates suggest that the VAT threshold distorts the behavior of 57,000 firms, resulting in lost tax collection of 17 billion yen per annum. With Japan facing another round of VAT hike in October 2019, our research provides additional insights to inform the forthcoming policy change.