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The Consumption-Wealth Ratio, Real Estate Wealth, and the Japanese Stock Market

Author

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  • Aono, Kohei
  • 青野, 幸平
  • アオノ, コウヘイ
  • Iwaisako, Tokuo
  • 祝迫, 得夫
  • イワイサコ, トクオ

Abstract

The first contribution of this paper, following the works of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a,b), is construction of the Japanese consumption-wealth ratio data series and to examine whether it explains Japanese stock market data. We find that the consumption-wealth ratio does not predict future stock returns, but it does help to explain the cross-section of Japanese stock returns. The second contribution of the paper is that we propose new consumption-wealth ratios in terms of which we more explicitly deal with household real estate wealth utilizing Japanese aggregate level data. Such "real estate augmented" consumption-wealth ratios work in a similar way, but perform better than, the consumption-wealth ratio calculated with only financial wealth data. While the scaled factor model with the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson performs relatively well with Japanese data, the book-to-market related anomaly pointed out by Jagannathan et al. (1998) remains strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Aono, Kohei & 青野, 幸平 & アオノ, コウヘイ & Iwaisako, Tokuo & 祝迫, 得夫 & イワイサコ, トクオ, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio, Real Estate Wealth, and the Japanese Stock Market," Discussion Paper Series a504, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a504
    Note: 39642, The previous version of this paper was circulated under the title of "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Japanese Stock Market". We made substantial changes to the calculation of the variables used in the empirical analyses in this current version.
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/15872/DP504.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2010. "On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(2), pages 141-149, June.
    2. Tokuo Iwaisako & Keiko Okada, 2010. "Understanding the Decline in Japan's Saving Rate in the New Millennium," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23113, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    4. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2011. "Forecasting Japanese Stock Returns with Financial Ratios and Other Variables," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(4), pages 373-384, November.
    5. Aono, Kohei & Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2013. "The consumption–wealth ratio, real estate wealth, and the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 39-51.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption-wealth ratio; cointegration; cross-section of stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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