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Technological Decoupling Between the U.S. and China

Author

Listed:
  • DESEATNICOV, Ivan
  • FUKAO, Kyoji
  • HAYAKAWA, Kazunobu
  • ITO, Keiko
  • KUCHERYAVYY, Konstantin

Abstract

In this paper, we address the ongoing debate on technological decoupling by examining the effect of US export controls and China’s import tariffs on trade. By creating a detailed mapping between the products under the US export controls and 10-digit HS codes of US export products, we analyze the differences in US export reductions to China compared to other countries in 2017-2021. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that US export controls have led to a decrease in exports to China; in fact, these exports are either neutral or tend to increase relative to other countries. Additionally, our research indicates that China's imposition of additional import tariffs will likely diminish US exports to China.

Suggested Citation

  • DESEATNICOV, Ivan & FUKAO, Kyoji & HAYAKAWA, Kazunobu & ITO, Keiko & KUCHERYAVYY, Konstantin, 2024. "Technological Decoupling Between the U.S. and China," Discussion Paper Series 756, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:756
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/84144/DP756.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export regulation; Trade; Tariffs; Technological decoupling; United States; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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