The Impact Of Covid-19 And Preferential Mortgage Lending Programs On Mortgage Lending: Evidence From Russia

This study explores the relationship between preferential mortgage programs and regional mortgage lending in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery period. Using quarterly data from 87 Russian regions, the research examines how preferential mortgage programs — Standard Preferential, Family, Far Eastern, and IT — were associated with lending growth and delinquency rates. The findings underscore the complex interplay between housing policies, regional economic conditions, and mortgage market activity under varying external economic shocks. The study reveals that overall mortgage lending volumes were higher during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods in regions with greater adoption of preferential mortgage programs. This pattern suggests that these programs supported housing market activity, particularly in economically resilient regions. However, regions with higher program utilization also experienced elevated delinquency rates, reflecting the challenges of balancing increased borrowing with financial risks. Program-specific analysis highlights variations in lending dynamics and emphasizes the importance of tailoring housing policies to regional and demographic needs, providing insights for designing adaptive support measures that promote mortgage market stability and economic recovery.