From the Security to Insecurity Dilemma Developing a Theory of Security for Today’S Emerging Powers

The West's attempts to isolate Russia during the Ukraine crisis have failed to win the support of the leading states of Global South. China, Brazil, India, and South Africa abstained from the UN resolution to condemn Russia's annexation of Crimea and have spoken out against further sanctions. This response reflects their receptiveness to Russia's claims that events in Kiev constituted a "color revolution" orchestrated by the West -- a narrative that speaks to developing states' own feelings of internal vulnerability and weakness. The paper builds on Mohammed Ayoob's "third world security predicament" modifying this concept to fit an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world where developing states are the biggest new players. We are used to thinking of conflict between states in terms of the security dilemma, i.e. where a state’s strength has the effect of making it more secure but also increases the insecurity of other states. A state’s internal weaknesses can unleash a similar cycle of suspicion and conflict. If a state believes that these weaknesses will be exploited by rival powers it may look for ways to push back. In a world where the emerging powers and potential rivals to US and Western hegemony are also developing states this kind of insecurity dilemma may represent the more dangerous threat to peace between great powers