IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hig/wpaper/05-fe-2012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Copula structural shift identification

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Brodsky

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Department. National Research University Higher School of Economics. Applied Macroeconomics Department.)

  • Henry Penikas

    (International Laboratory of Decision Choice and Analysis, National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Irina Safaryan

    (Institute for Informatics and Automation Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia; Research Fellow.)

Abstract

This paper aims at presenting the research results of revealing a structural shift in copula-models of multivariate time-series. A nonparametric method of structural shift identification and estimation is used. The asymptotical characteristics (the probabilities of the I-type and II-type errors, and the probability of the estimation error) of the proposed method are analyzed. The simulation method verification results for Clayton and Gumbel copulas are presented and discussed. The empirical part of the paper is devoted to structural shift identification for multivariate time series of interest rates for Euro-, US Dollar- and Ruble-zones. The empirical application provides strong evidence of the efficiency for the proposed method of structural shift identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Brodsky & Henry Penikas & Irina Safaryan, 2012. "Copula structural shift identification," HSE Working papers WP BRP 05/FE/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:05/fe/2012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2012/08/17/1257047073/05FE2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
    2. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    3. W. Breymann & A. Dias & P. Embrechts, 2003. "Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14.
    4. Christian Genest & Jean‐François Quessy & Bruno Rémillard, 2006. "Goodness‐of‐fit Procedures for Copula Models Based on the Probability Integral Transformation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 337-366, June.
    5. Edward Frees & Emiliano Valdez, 1998. "Understanding Relationships Using Copulas," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25.
    6. Fermanian, Jean-David & Scaillet, Olivier, 2003. "Nonparametric estimation of copulas for time series," Working Papers unige:41797, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    7. Rémillard, Bruno & Scaillet, Olivier, 2009. "Testing for equality between two copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 377-386, March.
    8. Kim, Gunky & Silvapulle, Mervyn J. & Silvapulle, Paramsothy, 2007. "Comparison of semiparametric and parametric methods for estimating copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2836-2850, March.
    9. Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brodsky, Boris & Penikas, Henry & Safaryan, Irina, 2009. "Detection of Structural Breaks in Copula Models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 16(4), pages 3-15.
    2. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
    3. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.
    4. Gregor Weiß, 2011. "Copula parameter estimation by maximum-likelihood and minimum-distance estimators: a simulation study," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 31-54, March.
    5. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    6. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    7. Zhang, Shulin & Okhrin, Ostap & Zhou, Qian M. & Song, Peter X.-K., 2016. "Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 215-233.
    8. Grundke, Peter & Polle, Simone, 2012. "Crisis and risk dependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 518-528.
    9. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1596-1609, September.
    10. Dobric, Jadran & Schmid, Friedrich, 2007. "A goodness of fit test for copulas based on Rosenblatt's transformation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4633-4642, May.
    11. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
    12. Yiran Chen & Giray Ökten, 2022. "A goodness-of-fit test for copulas based on the collision test," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 1369-1385, October.
    13. Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "Fitting high-dimensional Copulae to Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    14. Penikas, H., 2010. "Financial Applications of Copula-Models," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 7, pages 24-44.
    15. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions. III," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 100-130.
    16. Christian Genest & Johanna Nešlehová & Johanna Ziegel, 2011. "Inference in multivariate Archimedean copula models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(2), pages 223-256, August.
    17. Can, S.U. & Einmahl, John & Laeven, R.J.A., 2020. "Goodness-of-fit testing for copulas: A distribution-free approach," Other publications TiSEM 211b2be9-b46e-41e2-9b95-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 22(2), pages 98-134.
    19. Hofert, Marius & Mächler, Martin & McNeil, Alexander J., 2012. "Likelihood inference for Archimedean copulas in high dimensions under known margins," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 133-150.
    20. Oriol Roch Casellas & Antonio Alegre Escolano, 2005. "Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market," Working Papers in Economics 143, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copula; structural shift; Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics; interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:05/fe/2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamil Abdulaev or Shamil Abdulaev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.