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On extreme perception bias

Author

Listed:
  • Molina, Imelda

    (College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippines-Los Banos)

  • Aguilar, Emrico

    (Department of Information and Physical Sciences, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Osaka University)

  • Puzon, Klarizze

    (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)

Abstract

This preliminary note investigates perception bias: To what extent do individual opinions confound reality? We estimate the relative gap between self-declared estimates and real data. We asked a sample of Philippine respondents about the incidence of diabetes and smartphone usage in their country. We observed a trend of judgement miscalibration. Responses exhibit significant deviation from facts, e.g. inaccuracies can go as high as seven times the real value. Especially for estimates on smartphone ownership, bootstrapped quantile regression models show that perception bias is associated with age.

Suggested Citation

  • Molina, Imelda & Aguilar, Emrico & Puzon, Klarizze, 2019. "On extreme perception bias," CERE Working Papers 2019:10, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:slucer:2019_010
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    perception; overestimation; quantile regression; bootstrapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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