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Economic Fluctuations and Mortality:Evidence from Wavelet Analysis for Sweden 1800-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Krüger, Niclas A

    (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)

  • Svensson, Mikael

    (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between crude and age adjusted mortality andeconomic conditions by wavelet analysis in Sweden over the period 1800-2000. We use wavelet correlations and cross-correlations to analyze the contemporaneous connection as well as the lead/lag relationship between mortality and GDP at different time scales. Our results indicate a countercyclical relationship, i.e. mortality decreases in economic upturns, for all time horizons. The relationship is strongest and highly significant for dynamics with a period between 4 and 8 years, corresponding to the length of a typical Swedish business cycle. By means of vector autoregressive modelling, we further examine the dynamics of the response in mortality to an exogenous GDP growth shock. Our results indicate that economic upturns decreases contemporaneous mortality and increases mortality between six and eight years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Krüger, Niclas A & Svensson, Mikael, 2007. "Economic Fluctuations and Mortality:Evidence from Wavelet Analysis for Sweden 1800-2000," Working Papers 2007:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2007_006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality; GDP growth; Wavelet;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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