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TARP and Market Discipline: Evidence on the Moral Hazard Effects of Bank Recapitalizations

Author

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  • Forssbaeck, Jens

    (School of Economics and Management, Lund University)

  • Nielsen, Caren Yinxia

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

We examine the moral hazard effects of bank recapitalizations by assessing the impact of the U.S. TARP program on market discipline exerted by subordinated debt-holders using a sample of 123 bank holding companies over the period 2004-2013. Predicted distress risk has a consistently positive and significant effect on sub-debt spreads, suggesting the presence of market discipline. A higher bailout probability significantly reduces the risk-sensitivity of spreads for the full sample, indicating a moral hazard effect of recapitalizations. This appears to be a too-big-to-fail effect, as it is absent when the largest banks are dropped from the sample. Results indicate that it is transitory. We also find a large effect of the crisis, appearing both as a uniform rise in, and a heightened risk sensitivity of, sub-debt spreads during the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Forssbaeck, Jens & Nielsen, Caren Yinxia, 2016. "TARP and Market Discipline: Evidence on the Moral Hazard Effects of Bank Recapitalizations," Working Papers 2016:10, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_010
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    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Berger, Allen N. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Roman, Raluca A., 2022. "Geographic deregulation and banks’ cost of equity capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Allen N. Berger & Martien Lamers & Raluca A. Roman & Koen Schoors, 2020. "Unexpected Effects of Bank Bailouts:Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/1005, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Allen N. Berger & Martien Lamers & Raluca A. Roman & Koen Schoors, 2023. "Supply and Demand Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1397-1442, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank bailouts; moral hazard; distress risk; capital injections; TARP; CPP; market discipline; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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