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Estimating Default Probabilities Using Stock Prices: The Swedish Banking Sector During the 1990s Banking Crisis

Author

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  • Byström, Hans

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

The growing interest in management of credit risk and estimation ofdefault probabilities has given rise to a range of more or lesselaborate credit risk models. Hall and Miles (1990) suggests an approachof estimating failure probabilities based solely on stock market prices.The approach has the advantage of simplicity but relies on markete.ciency to hold. In this paper we suggest an extension to the Hall andMiles (1990) model using extreme value theory and apply the extendedmodel to the Swedish financial sector and to individual Swedish banks.The 15- year long sample in our study covers the period of the Swedishbanking crisis of the early 1990s. We find a close correspondencebetween changes in the estimated probabilities of failure and the actualcredit events occurring. Credit ratings from major credit ratingagencies, on the other hand, are shown to react much less and muchslower to credit quality changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Byström, Hans, 2003. "Estimating Default Probabilities Using Stock Prices: The Swedish Banking Sector During the 1990s Banking Crisis," Working Papers 2003:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Caserta & J. DanÃÂÃÂelsson & C. G. De Vries, 1998. "Abnormal returns, risk, and options in large data sets," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 52(3), pages 324-335, November.
    2. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    4. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    Cited by:

    1. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crisis; default; credit risk; extreme value theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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