IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunwpe/0015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effects of firm-specific variables and consensus forecasts data on the pricing of large Swedish firms’ stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Johansson, Anders

    (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University)

  • Rolseth, Lars

    (Unitfond)

Abstract

In this essay we model the returns for 14 large Swedish firms' stocks with a conditional multifactor model with time-varying beta terms. The data are monthly and the sample period is June 1992 to August 1997. The beta terms are modelled as linear functions of predetermined firm attributes, which are taken either from published accounting data or from consensus forecast data. The main findings are that the stock exchange is not efficient with respect to the consensus information and the lagged yield spread. We also find that the lagged firm attributes are mainly associated with risk exposures. Using encompassing tests, the models based on consensus forecast data can for six firms unilaterally encompass the models based on accounting data. The reverse result holds for five firms. For most firms, the "best" models are not rejected in out-of-sample forecast tests for the period September 1997 to December 1997.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Anders & Rolseth, Lars, 1999. "The effects of firm-specific variables and consensus forecasts data on the pricing of large Swedish firms’ stocks," Working Papers in Economics 15, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0015.pdf
    File Function: Complete Rendering
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0015.pdf.zip
    File Function: Complete Rendering
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0015.ps
    File Function: Complete Rendering
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0015.ps.zip
    File Function: Complete Rendering
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berk, Jonathan B, 1995. "A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 275-286.
    2. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-392, August.
    3. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. "Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anders Johansson & Lars Rolseth, 2001. "The effects of firm-specific variables and consensus forecast data on the pricing of large Swedish firms' stocks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 373-384.
    2. Timo Korkeamaki & Danielle Xu, 2015. "Institutional Investors and Foreign Exchange Risk," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-33, September.
    3. Barbara Fidanza & Ottorino Morresi, 2021. "Size and Value Anomalies in European Bank Stocks," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(12), pages 227-227, July.
    4. Constantinos Antoniou & John A. Doukas & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Investor Sentiment, Beta, and the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 347-367, February.
    5. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    6. Souza, Thiago de Oliveira, 2020. "Dollar carry timing," Discussion Papers on Economics 10/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    7. Joon-Ho Hahm, 2004. "Interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre-crisis Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1409-1419.
    8. Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
    9. Wolfgang Aussenegg & Andreas Grünbichler, 1999. "Der Size-Effekt am Österreichischen Aktienmarkt," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 51(7), pages 636-661, July.
    10. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    11. Júnior, José L. R., 2008. "Exchange Rate Exposure, Foreign Currency Debt and the Use of Derivatives: Evidence from Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_141, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    12. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Yau, Ruey & Wu, Jyun-Yi, 2009. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure and Industry Characteristics : Evidence from Japanese Data," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 57-69, June.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2514 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Mahdi Salehi & Reza Ghorbanzadeh, 2016. "The influence of firms' capital expenditure on firms' working capital management," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 287-301.
    16. Javed Ahmed & Christopher Anderson & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2015. "Are the Borrowing Costs of Large Financial Firms Unusual?," Working Papers 15-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    17. José Eduardo Gómez Gónzalez & Jorge Marío Uribe Gil & Hernán Piñeros Gordo, 2009. "Determinantes de la Rentabilidad de los Bancos en Colombia: ¿Importa la Tasa de Cambio?," Borradores de Economia 556, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Nicole Branger & Christian Schlag, 2004. "Why is the Index Smile So Steep?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 109-127.
    19. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Hasan Olgun, 2007. "Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 53-68.
    21. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Consensus forecast; Market efficiency; Predictable stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jessica Oscarsson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/naiguse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.