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The effects of firm-specific variables and consensus forecasts data on the pricing of large Swedish firms’ stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Johansson, Anders

    (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University)

  • Rolseth, Lars

    (Unitfond)

Abstract

In this essay we model the returns for 14 large Swedish firms' stocks with a conditional multifactor model with time-varying beta terms. The data are monthly and the sample period is June 1992 to August 1997. The beta terms are modelled as linear functions of predetermined firm attributes, which are taken either from published accounting data or from consensus forecast data. The main findings are that the stock exchange is not efficient with respect to the consensus information and the lagged yield spread. We also find that the lagged firm attributes are mainly associated with risk exposures. Using encompassing tests, the models based on consensus forecast data can for six firms unilaterally encompass the models based on accounting data. The reverse result holds for five firms. For most firms, the "best" models are not rejected in out-of-sample forecast tests for the period September 1997 to December 1997.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Anders & Rolseth, Lars, 1999. "The effects of firm-specific variables and consensus forecasts data on the pricing of large Swedish firms’ stocks," Working Papers in Economics 15, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-392, August.
    3. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. "Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Consensus forecast; Market efficiency; Predictable stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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