IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunefd/2020_025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impacts of COVID-19 on Tight Oil Supply: Evidence from a Price Responsiveness Econometric Model

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yan

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic is having substantial impacts on the oil and gas industry. Following the plummeting of oil prices in March 2020, the future supply of tight oil in the United States has become crucial for government policy. Market prediction, however, is not well established. In this paper, I construct an econometric model to quantify the price responsiveness of tight oil supply in the United States using well-level play-specific panel data, and use the model to analyze the influence of coronavirus pandemic on tight oil supply. The regression results show that the oil price elasticity was 2.0 for tight oil drilling and 0.5 for tight oil production in 2010-2016. The gas price elasticity is insignificant in both cases. Forecasts using the estimated econometric model show that tight oil production will decrease by 1.3-2.3 MMbbl/d (16-28%) under different price scenarios. The coronavirus pandemic will also cause a significant reduction in tight oil drilling activities. However, tight oil is not likely to be a “swing producer” and OPEC will continue to lead production cuts under low prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yan, 2020. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Tight Oil Supply: Evidence from a Price Responsiveness Econometric Model," EfD Discussion Paper 20-25, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2020_025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.efdinitiative.org/sites/default/files/publications/MS%20718%20DP%2020-25%20July%2029%20FInal.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    2. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Frode Martin Nordvik & Maximilian Rohrer, 2021. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, April.
    3. Richard G. Newell and Brian C. Prest, 2019. "The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    5. Paul W. MacAvoy & Robert S. Pindyck, 1973. "Alternative Regulatory Policies for Dealing with the Natural Gas Shortage," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 454-498, Autumn.
    6. repec:aen:journl:eeep4_1_krupnick is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Atle Oglend & Morten E. Lindback & Petter Osmundsen, 2016. "Shale Gas Boom Affecting the Relationship Between LPG and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 211-232, January.
    8. Jun Du, 2018. "Trends in China’s Grain Production," Palgrave Studies in Economic History, in: Agricultural Transition in China, chapter 4, pages 97-122, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Margaret A. Walls, 1994. "Using a 'Hybrid' Approach to Model Oil and Gas Supply: A Case Study of the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 70(1), pages 1-19.
    10. Carol Dahl & Mine Yücel, 1991. "Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(4), pages 117-138, October.
    11. Zhongmin Wang and Alan Krupnick, 2015. "A Retrospective Review of Shale Gas Development in the United States: What Led to the Boom?," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    12. Oecd, 2018. "Consumer product safety in the Internet of Things," OECD Digital Economy Papers 267, OECD Publishing.
    13. McKie, James W, 1974. "The Political Economy of World Petroleum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 51-57, May.
    14. Sai Liang & Yafei Wang & Chao Zhang & Ming Xu & Zhifeng Yang & Weidong Liu & Hongguang Liu & Anthony S.F. Chiu, 2018. "Final production-based emissions of regions in China," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 18-36, January.
    15. Nixon, Dan & Smith, Tom, 2012. "What can the oil futures curve tell us about the outlook for oil prices?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 39-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yan, 2021. "Evaluating the influence of energy prices on tight oil supply with implications on the impacts of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Thomas S. Gundersen, 2021. "The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data," Working Papers No 05/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Chen, Yan & Xu, Jintao, 2018. "The Shale Gas Boom in the US: Productivity Shocks and Price Responsiveness," EfD Discussion Paper 18-17, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    4. Kotowicz, Janusz & Brzęczek, Mateusz, 2019. "Comprehensive multivariable analysis of the possibility of an increase in the electrical efficiency of a modern combined cycle power plant with and without a CO2 capture and compression installations ," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1100-1120.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
    6. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    8. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2020. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2020-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    9. Dahl, Carol & Duggan, Thomas E., 1998. "Survey of price elasticities from economic exploration models of US oil and gas supply," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 129-169.
    10. Wheeler,Collette Mari & Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Adding Fuel to the Fire : Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9320, The World Bank.
    11. Bergholt, Drago & Røisland, Øistein & Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar, 2023. "Monetary policy when export revenues drop," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2021. "The asymmetric relationship of oil prices and production on drilling rig trajectory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2018. "U.S. shale producers: a case of dynamic risk management?," MPRA Paper 88279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    16. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Gonçalves, Márcio & Simões, Nuno & Serra, Catarina & Flores-Colen, Inês, 2020. "A review of the challenges posed by the use of vacuum panels in external insulation finishing systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    20. Ho, Calvin K. & McAuley, Kimberley B. & Peppley, Brant A., 2019. "Biolubricants through renewable hydrocarbons: A perspective for new opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tight oil; elasticity; oil price; Coronavirus; OPEC; swing producer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2020_025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.efdinitiative.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.