IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhb/hanken/0524.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kulp-Tåg, Sofie

    (Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

This paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulp-Tåg, Sofie, 2007. "Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets," Working Papers 524, Hanken School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:hanken:0524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://brunnen.shh.fi/portals/pubmanager/pdf/524-978-951-555-951-7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 291, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. Jan G. De Gooijer & Kurt Brännäs, 2004. "Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 155-171.
    5. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    6. González-Rivera Gloria, 1998. "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Li, C W & Li, W K, 1996. "On a Double-Threshold Autoregressive Heteroscedastic Time Series Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 253-274, May-June.
    8. Fornari, Fabio & Mele, Antonio, 1997. "Sign- and Volatility-Switching ARCH Models: Theory and Applications to International Stock Markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 49-65, Jan.-Feb..
    9. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    10. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    11. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 563-588, December.
    12. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    13. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
    14. Nam Kiseok, 2003. "The Asymmetric Reverting Property of Stock Returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1995. "Overreaction, Delayed Reaction, and Contrarian Profits," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 973-993.
    18. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. "Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-553, July.
    19. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001. "Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
    20. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
    21. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    3. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    4. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001. "Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
    5. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "An introduction to univariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 646, Stockholm School of Economics.
    6. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Thomas C. Chiang & Cathy W.S. Chen & Mike K.P. So, 2007. "Asymmetric Return and Volatility Responses to Composite News from Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(3-4), pages 179-210, September.
    8. Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2016. "Is the Effect of Risk on Stock Returns Different in Up and Down Markets? A Multi-Country Study," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 8(2), pages 53-71, September.
    9. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Kim, Sei-Wan, 2003. "Is asymmetric mean-reverting pattern in stock returns systematic? Evidence from Pacific-basin markets in the short-horizon," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 481-502, December.
    10. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 563-588, December.
    11. Patricia Chelley-Steeley & James Steeley, 2005. "The leverage effect in the UK stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 409-423.
    12. George Ogum & Francisca Beer & Genevieve Nouyrigat, 2005. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility Ab Empirical Investigation Of Markets In Kenya Nigeria," Post-Print hal-04533527, HAL.
    13. Ioannis A. Tampakoudis & Demetres N. Subeniotis & Ioannis G. Kroustalis, 2012. "Modelling volatility during the current financial crisis: an empirical analysis of the US and the UK stock markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3/4), pages 171-194.
    14. Francesco Audrino & Fabio Trojani, 2006. "Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 345-369, April.
    15. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Time-Varying Betas and Asymmetric Effect of News: Empirical Analysis of Blue Chip Stocks," NBER Working Papers 7330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    17. Alessandra Amendola & Giuseppe Storti, 2002. "A non-linear time series approach to modelling asymmetry in stock market indexes," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 11(2), pages 201-216, June.
    18. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    20. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Yang, Ming Jing & Gerlach, Richard & Jim Lo, H., 2006. "The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 401-418.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhb:hanken:0524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Staffan Dellringer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/shhhhfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.