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The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and its Distributional Impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Bosshardt

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • Marco Di Maggio

    (Harvard University)

  • Ali Kakhbod

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Amir Kermani

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both the individual and regional levels. We find that mortgage supply factors, specifically restrictions on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, account for the majority of the decline in mortgages. These effects are even more pronounced for young and middle-income borrowers who find themselves excluded from the credit market. Also, regions with historically high DTI ratios exhibited greater reductions in mortgage originations, house prices, and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Bosshardt & Marco Di Maggio & Ali Kakhbod & Amir Kermani, 2023. "The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and its Distributional Impacts," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:23-03
    as

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    File URL: https://www.fhfa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/wp2303.pdf
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    File URL: https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp2303
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bartlett, Robert & Morse, Adair & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy, 2022. "Consumer-lending discrimination in the FinTech Era," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 30-56.
    2. William D. Larson, 2022. "Effects of Mortgage Interest Rates on House Price Appreciation: The Role of Payment Constraints," FHFA Staff Working Papers 22-04, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    3. Michael Carlos Best & James S Cloyne & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik J Kleven, 2020. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(2), pages 656-690.
    4. Gyourko, Joseph & Hartley, Jonathan S. & Krimmel, Jacob, 2021. "The local residential land use regulatory environment across U.S. housing markets: Evidence from a new Wharton index," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    7. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher J Palmer, 2020. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1498-1528.
    8. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2024. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2024/023, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; mortgage lending; house prices; debt-to-income (DTI);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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