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Human Development Trends since 1970: A Social Convergence Story

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  • George Gray Molina and Mark Purser

    (Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton University
    Human Development Report Office, UNDP)

Abstract

This paper uses a unique data set of the Human Development Index to describe long-run human development trends for 111 countries, from 1970 to 2005. The first part of the paper shows trends by region, period and index subcomponent. We find that 110 of the 111 countries show progress in their HDI levels over a 35-year period. HDI growth is fastest for low-HDI and middle-HDI countries in the pre-1990 period. The life-expectancy and education subcomponents grow faster than income. The assessment of HDI progress is sensitive to choice of measurement. The second part of the paper focuses on the differences between income and non-income determinants of human development. First, HDI growth converges, both absolutely and conditionally, when running HDI growth rates on initial levels of HD. Second, we find that the income and non-income components of HDI change have a near-zero correlation. Third, we look at determinants of the non-income components of the HDI. We find that income is not a significant determinant of HDI change once we include urbanization, fertility and female schooling. Fourth, we test the effects of institutions, geography and gender on HDI growth. We find that the most robust predictors of HDI growth are fertility and female schooling. We check this result using years of women’s suffrage as an instrument for changes in gender relations, and find that it is a significant predictor of HDI progress for the whole sample.

Suggested Citation

  • George Gray Molina and Mark Purser, 2010. "Human Development Trends since 1970: A Social Convergence Story," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-02, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    • Handle: RePEc:hdr:papers:hdrp-2010-02
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    File URL: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/papers/HDRP_2010_02.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hippu Salk Kristle Nathan & Srijit Mishra, 2010. "Progress in human development: Are we on the right path?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 199-221.
    2. Pedro Gerber Machado & Arnaldo Walter & Michelle Cristina Picoli & Cristina Gerber João, 2017. "Potential impacts on local quality of life due to sugarcane expansion: a case study based on panel data analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 2069-2092, October.
    3. David Mayer-Foulkes, 2013. "A Cross-country Causal Panorama of Human Development and Sustainability," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, May.
    4. Karim Khan & Saima Batool & Anwar Shah, 2016. "Authoritarian Regimes and Economic Development: An Empirical Reflection," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 657-673.
    5. Umberto Lucia & Giulia Grisolia, 2021. "The Gouy-Stodola Theorem—From Irreversibility to Sustainability—The Thermodynamic Human Development Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-13, April.
    6. Bienvenido Ortega & Antonio Casquero & Jesús Sanjuán, 2016. "Corruption and Convergence in Human Development: Evidence from 69 Countries During 1990–2012," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 691-719, June.
    7. Ewa, Lechman, 2011. "Economic growth dynamics across countries," MPRA Paper 37768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2018. "The Electoral Dynamics of Human Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 191-211, January.
    9. Michael Binder & Georgios Georgiadis, 2011. "Determinants of Human Development: Capturing the Role of Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3397, CESifo.
    10. Eduardo Cuenca García & Margarita Navarro Pabsdorf & Juan Carlos Moran Alvarez, 2019. "Factors Determining Differences in the Poverty Degree among Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, July.
    11. David Mayer-Foulkes, 2011. "A Causal Panorama of Cross-Country Human Development," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_049, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    human development; education; health and demographic trends; cross-country comparisons; measurement and analysis of poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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