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A Principal Component Simulation of Age-Specific Fertility - Impacts of Family and Social Policy on Reproductive Behavior in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Vanella, Patrizio
  • Deschermeier, Philipp

Abstract

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation among the ASFR time series. The effects of certain measures are also quantified through the introduction of policy variables. Our approach is applicable to probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigating the potential outcome of political intervention. A slight increase in the TFR is probable until 2040. In the median scenario, the TFR will increase from 1.6 in 2016 to 1.68 in 2040 and will be between 1.46 and 1.92 with a probability of 75 percent. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of the mid-1990s. Two simple alternate scenarios are used to illustrate the estimated ceteris paribus effect of changes in our policy variables on the TFR.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2018. "A Principal Component Simulation of Age-Specific Fertility - Impacts of Family and Social Policy on Reproductive Behavior in Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-630, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    2. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    3. Maarten Alders & Nico Keilman & Harri Cruijsen, 2007. "Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 33-69, March.
    4. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Statistical Demography; Forecasting; Family Policy; Principal Component Analysis; Time Series Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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