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Drought Declarations and Voting Outcomes: Evidence from Tunisia

Author

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  • Nourhan Hashish

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Using a novel dataset in a difference-in-differences framework, I study the political implications of the change in policies protecting drought-impacted communities in Tunisia in 3088 districts. In 2016, the Tunisian government had drastically reduced support to farmers affected by droughts. I show that this resulted in lower vote share for the incumbent candidate in the second round of the 2019 presidential elections. The magnitudes are substantial: a one standard deviation increase in the district-level damage caused by droughts after the policy change leads to a decline in the incumbent's vote share by 10 percentage points. I show that the likely mechanism is the rise of public discontent: the drought-affected districts had a higher number of riots or violent protests relative to the policy change. I find no significant effects either on voter turnout, closeness to incumbent party at the parliamentary elections or on trust in political parties at the parliament.

Suggested Citation

  • Nourhan Hashish, 2025. "Drought Declarations and Voting Outcomes: Evidence from Tunisia," SciencePo Working papers hal-05022881, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpspec:hal-05022881
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05022881v1
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