IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-02120613.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Primary balance dynamics and public debt sustainability in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • William Irungu Ng'Ang'A

    (Strathmore University [Nairobi], UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (IPAG Business School, UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

  • Simon Wagura Ndiritu

    (Strathmore University [Nairobi])

Abstract

This study investigates the extent to which primary balance reacts to exacerbate or mitigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks on total public debt in Kenya. Based on time series data from 1981 to 2015, Structural Vector Autoregressive model (SVAR)is used to evaluate the interrelationship between primary balance, real exchange rate, interest payment, and Gross Domestic Product. The main objective was to evaluate the interactive nature of primary balance and automatic stabilizers and its implication on debt sustainability. The findings are threefold: (i) The results confirm that primary balance reaction to shocks is consistent with maintaining a non-explosive debt position. (ii) Fiscal consolidation appears counterproductive as a response to debt management, as this may dampen growth and ultimately compromise overall macroeconomic stability, especially in the long run. (iii) The findings also establish that debt uptake is positively associated with long-run GDP growth suggesting that public debt plays a vital role in macroeconomic development in Kenya.

Suggested Citation

  • William Irungu Ng'Ang'A & Julien Chevallier & Simon Wagura Ndiritu, 2019. "Primary balance dynamics and public debt sustainability in Kenya," Working Papers halshs-02120613, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02120613
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02120613
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02120613/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    3. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    5. Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002. "A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
    6. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiová, 2015. "Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(5), pages 555-580, September.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    8. OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D & A. A. S. Priyadarshanee, 2014. "Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(7), pages 100-108, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vladimir Filipovski & Taki Fiti & Borce Trenovski, 2016. "Efficiency of the Fiscal Policy and the Fiscal Multipliers – The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 3-23.
    2. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    3. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2525 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Liuan Wang & Lu (Lucy) Yan & Tongxin Zhou & Xitong Guo & Gregory R. Heim, 2020. "Understanding Physicians’ Online-Offline Behavior Dynamics: An Empirical Study," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 537-555, June.
    6. MORITA, Hiroshi, 2024. "New Approach to Estimating the Productivity of Public Capital : Evidence from 22 OECD Countries," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-141, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    8. Jose Tavares & Rossen Valkanov, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    9. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
    10. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI & Riccardo Jack LUCCHETTI, 2015. "Structure-Based SVAR Identification," Departmental Working Papers 2015-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    11. Vitor Carvalho & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2011. "Investment and output effects of fiscal consolidations in a new-Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro Area: composition matters?," EcoMod2011 3246, EcoMod.
    12. Etienne Wasmer, 2009. "Links between labor supply and unemployment: theory and empirics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 773-802, July.
    13. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2525 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
    16. Carlson Mark A & King Thomas & Lewis Kurt, 2011. "Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, June.
    17. Pandelis Mitsis, 2015. "Effects of Minimum Wages on Total Employment: Evidence from Cyprus," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 318-345, September.
    18. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    20. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    21. Olivier Marie, 2016. "Police and thieves in the stadium: measuring the (multiple) effects of football matches on crime," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(1), pages 273-292, January.
    22. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt sustainability; SVAR; Public debt dynamics; Automatic stabilizers; Primary balance;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02120613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.