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Fiscal Policy, Debt Constraint and Expectation-Driven Volatility

Author

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  • Kazuo Nishimura

    (RIEB, Kobe University - Kobe University, KIER, Kyoto University - Kyoto University)

  • Thomas Seegmuller

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Venditti

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EDHEC Business School - Département Comptabilité, Droit, Finance et Economie)

Abstract

Imposing some constraints on public debt is often justified regarding sustainability and stability issues. This is especially the case when the ratio of public debt over GDP is restricted to be constant. Using a Ramsey model, we show that such a constraint can however be a fundamental source of indeterminacy, and therefore, of expectation-driven fluctuations. Indeed, through the intertemporal budget constraint of the government, income taxation negatively depends on future debt, i.e. on the expected level of production. This mechanism ensures that expectations on the future tax rate may be self-fulfilling. We show that this is promoted by a larger ratio of debt over GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuo Nishimura & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2014. "Fiscal Policy, Debt Constraint and Expectation-Driven Volatility," Working Papers halshs-01059575, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01059575
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01059575
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Carli & Leonor Modesto, 2022. "Sovereign debt, fiscal policy, and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(6), pages 1386-1412, December.
    2. Boucekkine, Raouf & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2015. "Introduction to financial frictions and debt constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 271-275.
    3. Zhiming Fu & Antoine Le Riche, 2022. "Public spending, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 580-608, June.
    4. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2019. "The Perils of Fiscal Rules," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2702, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle & Boucekkine, Raouf & Gozzi, Fausto & Venditti, Alain & Zou, Benteng, 2024. "Fifty years of mathematical growth theory: Classical topics and new trends," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Increasing Returns, Balanced-Budget Rules, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Post-Print hal-02315041, HAL.
    7. Manjira Datta & Kevin Reffett & Łukasz Woźny, 2018. "Comparing recursive equilibrium in economies with dynamic complementarities and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(3), pages 593-626, October.
    8. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    9. Boucekkine, Raouf & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2021. "Advances in growth and macroeconomic dynamics: In memory of Carine Nourry," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-6.
    10. Arnaud Cheron & Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2019. "Growth and Public Debt: What Are the Relevant Trade‐Offs?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 655-682, March.
    11. Paulo Brito, 2017. "Government Debt, Fiscal Rules and Singular Growth Dynamics," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Bettina Bökemeier & Alfred Greiner (ed.), Inequality and Finance in Macrodynamics, pages 43-74, Springer.
    12. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Endogenous fluctuations and the balanced-budget rule: taxes versus spending-based adjustment," Post-Print halshs-02315727, HAL.
    13. Maxime Menuet, 2019. "Fiscal rule and shock amplification : A stochastic endogenous growth model," Working Papers hal-02153887, HAL.
    14. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "Endogenous labour supply, endogenous lifetime and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-259.
    15. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    income taxation; indeterminacy; endogenous cycles; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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