Does Forecasts Transparency Affect Macroeconomic Volatility in Developing Countries ? Evidence From Quasi-Natural Experiments
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00956454
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Ummad Mazhar & Cheick Kader M'baye, 2014. "Does Forecasts Transparency Affect Macroeconomic Volatility in Developing Countries ? Evidence From Quasi-Natural Experiments," Working Papers 1410, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
References listed on IDEAS
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997.
"Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Hoogduin, Lex H., 2010.
"Optimal central bank transparency,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1482-1507, December.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoogduin, L.H., 2008. "Optimal Central Bank Transparency," Other publications TiSEM 0b197ae2-58ca-4a78-82a1-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester & Hoogduin, Lex & van der Cruijsen, Carin, 2008. "Optimal Central Bank Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 6889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoogduin, L.H., 2010. "Optimal Central Bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 2b8c15dd-bc41-4053-942b-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoogduin, L.H., 2008. "Optimal Central Bank Transparency," Discussion Paper 2008-59, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2007.
"Central Bank transparency in theory and practice,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-789, December.
- Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Demertzis, Maria, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Demertzis, Maria & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2003. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 56, Royal Economic Society.
- Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2004. "Central bank transparency in theory and practice," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- DEMERTZIS Maria & HUGHES HALLETT Andrew, 2010. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," EcoMod2003 330700041, EcoMod.
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002.
"Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 99-118.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001. "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England.
- John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
- Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008.
"Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
- Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2007. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," Working Papers 2007-20, American University, Department of Economics.
- Mr. Christopher W. Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2008. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 2008/119, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005.
"Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan G. James & Phillip Lawler, 2011. "Optimal Policy Intervention and the Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1561-1574, June.
- Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2010.
"The signaling role of policy actions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 682-695, September.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2010. "The signaling role of policy actions," Post-Print halshs-01704165, HAL.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2010. "The signaling role of policy action," Working Papers of BETA 2010-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010.
"Oil and the Great Moderation,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 131-156, March.
- Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Working Papers (Old Series) 0717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 0735, Banco de España.
- Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005.
"Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle,
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," NBER Working Papers 11946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura González Cabanillas & Eric Ruscher, 2008. "The Great Moderation in the euro area: What role have macroeconomic policies played ?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 331, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004.
"Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000.
"Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?,"
Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2007.
"The Mystique of Central Bank Speak,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 37-80, March.
- Geraats, P.M., 2005. "The Mystique of Central Bank Speak," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0543, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2006. "The Mystique of Central Bank Speak," Working Papers 123, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005.
"Openness and inflation volatility: cross-country evidence,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
2005-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: Cross-country evidence," Economics Papers 2005-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Ummad Mazhar, 2013. "Transparency and output stability: Empirical evidence," Working Papers CEB 13-010, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003.
"The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
- Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierre Siklos, 2011.
"Central bank transparency: another look,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 929-933.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2010. "Central Bank Transparency: Another Look," CAMA Working Papers 2010-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2017. "How multiplicative uncertainty affects the tradeoff between information disclosure and stabilisation policy?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2014.
"Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 362-377.
- Stephanos Papadamou & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2014. "Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?," Post-Print hal-03692261, HAL.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2009.
"Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency,"
International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 235-268, August.
- Petra Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 2584, CESifo.
- Ummad Mazhar, 2013. "Does Greater Transparency Stabilize Output? Evidence from Panel Data," SBP Working Paper Series 59, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
- Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2015. "The effect of the market-based monetary policy transparency index on inflation and output variability," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 105-124, January.
- Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2011.
"Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment,"
Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 195-208, September.
- Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2010. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," Working Papers of BETA 2010-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," Post-Print hal-03692278, HAL.
- Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2010. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," MPRA Paper 23704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Oros, Cornel & Zimmer, Blandine, 2015.
"Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-93.
- Cornel Oros & Blandine Zimmer, 2015. "Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?," Post-Print hal-01233214, HAL.
- Meixing Dai & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Central bank transparency with the cost channel," Working Papers of BETA 2013-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Günes Kamber & Özer Karagedikli & Christie Smith, 2015.
"Applying an Inflation-Targeting Lens to Macroprodential Policy "Institutions","
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 395-429, September.
- Güneş Kamber & Özer Karagedikli & Christie Smith, 2015. "Applying an Inflation Targeting Lens to Macroprudential Policy 'Institutions'," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Soulemanou, Soulemanou, 2020. "Transparence des Banques Centrales et efficacité de la politique monétaire : quelles implications pour la Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale ? [Central Bank's Transparency and effectiveness of ," MPRA Paper 116436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.
- Akosah, Nana & Alagidede, Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2019. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Ghana: Recent Evidence," MPRA Paper 96998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo.
- Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2013. "Central bank transparency: Does it matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 183-197.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Christoph S. Weber, 2018.
"Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence,"
International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
- Christoph S. Weber, 2016. "Central Bank Transparency and Inflation (Volatility) – New Evidence," Working Papers 163, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
- Trabelsi, Emna & Hichri, Walid, 2021.
"Central Bank Transparency with (semi-)public Information: Laboratory Experiments,"
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
- Emna Trabelsi & Walid Hichri, 2021. "Central Bank Transparency with (semi-)public Information: Laboratory Experiments," Post-Print halshs-03042860, HAL.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2020.
"Observing and Shaping the Market: The Dilemma of Central Banks,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 1973-2005, December.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2016. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Working Papers halshs-01340635, HAL.
- Camille Cornand & Romain Baeriswyl & Bruno Ziliotto, 2019. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Post-Print hal-01644269, HAL.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2016. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Working Papers 1623, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
- Dr. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2018. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Working Papers 2018-03, Swiss National Bank.
- Andrew Hallett & Jan Libich, 2012. "Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 271-297, November.
- Meixing Dai, 2016.
"Static And Dynamic Effects Of Central Bank Transparency,"
Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 55-78, January.
- Meixing Dai, 2012. "Static and Dynamic Effects of Central Bank Transparency," Working Papers of BETA 2012-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Meixing Dai, 2016. "Static and Dynamic Effects of Central Bank Transparency," Post-Print hal-01721863, HAL.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecasts transparency; monetary policy transparency; central banking; inflation volatility; output volatility;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2014-03-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2014-03-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2014-03-22 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00956454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.