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Défaillances de coordination et volatilité des marchés

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Guesnerie

    (Collège de France - Chaire Théorie économique et organisation sociale - CdF (institution) - Collège de France, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This is the text of the "Jean Jacques Laffont lecture", closing the 2010 Congress of the AFSE, "Association Française de Science Economique". The first part comes back on the standard economic viewpoint on expectational coordination, a viewpoint that the recent events have challenged. The second part reviews the existing directions for a critical assessment of the rational expectations hypothesis. The third part shows how such a critical assessment, along the lines of the so-called "eductive" learning approach, radically modifies our view of three key problems : the economic benefit of speculation, the informational efficiency of markets and, last but not least, the ability of long horizon agents to anticipate the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Guesnerie, 2010. "Défaillances de coordination et volatilité des marchés," Working Papers halshs-00564997, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00564997
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00564997
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    Keywords

    coordination des anticipations; hypothèse d'anticipations rationnelles;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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