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L'impact des aides américaines et européennes sur le marché du coton : résultats d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique

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  • Catherine Araujo Bonjean

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Calipel

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fousseini Traore

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

L'objectif est d'évaluer l'impact des subventions américaines et européennes sur le marché international du coton à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique. L'originalité de ce travail est de prendre en compte de façon détaillée les différentes mesures d'aides et, notamment, le nouveau dispositif européen applicable à partir de 2006. Une autre originalité réside dans le choix de deux campagnes de référence permettant de saisir le caractère contra cyclique des aides. L'originalité réside également dans la prise en compte du risque de prix au niveau de l'offre de coton et l'estimation économétrique des fonctions d'offre de demande et de stockage. Les résultats, en termes de variation du prix mondial du coton s'inscrivent dans une fourchette relativement large (4 à 17 %) qui dépend de façon cruciale : du montant initial des aides aux USA, de l'évolution des coûts de production au USA et de la perception par les cotonculteurs du caractère plus ou moins découplé des aides.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Stéphane Calipel & Fousseini Traore, 2011. "L'impact des aides américaines et européennes sur le marché du coton : résultats d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique," Working Papers halshs-00564570, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00564570
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00564570
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gillson, I & Poulton, Colin & Balcombe, Kelvin & Page, S, 2004. "Understanding the impact of Cotton Subsidies on developing countries," MPRA Paper 15373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nodjitigje DJIMASRA, 2010. "Les déterminants de la performance à l'exportation du coton : l'illustration des pays africains," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1093, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

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    Keywords

    coton; subventions; modèle d'équilibre partiel;
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