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Extracting Information from the Market to Price the Weather Derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Hélène Hamisultane

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Weather derivatives were first launched in 1996 in the United-States to allow companies to protect themselves against weather fluctuations. Even now their valuation still remains tricky. Because their underlying is not a traded asset, the weather options cannot be priced by using the Black and Scholes formula. Other pricing methods were proposed but they cannot be calibrated to the market since there are no available weather option price. However, quoted prices exist for the weather futures. The purpose of this paper is to extract two types of information from these prices, the risk-neutral distribution and the market price of risk, to value the weather derivatives. The prices are calculated by assuming that the daily average temperature obeys a mean-reverting jump-EGARCH process since it is shown that the temperature is not normally distributed and exhibits a time-varying volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélène Hamisultane, 2007. "Extracting Information from the Market to Price the Weather Derivatives," Working Papers halshs-00079192, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00079192
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00079192v2
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    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00079192v2/document
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Yongheon & Oren, Shmuel S., 2009. "An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 702-713, September.
    2. Ahmet Göncü, 2013. "Comparison of temperature models using heating and cooling degree days futures," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 159-178, February.
    3. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-046 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-001 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ahčan, Aleš, 2012. "Statistical analysis of model risk concerning temperature residuals and its impact on pricing weather derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 131-138.
    6. Benth, Fred & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & López Cabrera, Brenda, 2009. "Pricing of Asian temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-046, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Yeny E. Rodríguez & Miguel A. Pérez-Uribe & Javier Contreras, 2021. "Wind Put Barrier Options Pricing Based on the Nordix Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Hélène Hamisultane, 2006. "Pricing the Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Long Memory in Temperatures," Working Papers halshs-00079197, HAL.
    9. Eirini Konstantinidi & Gkaren Papazian & George Skiadopoulos, 2015. "Modeling the Dynamics of Temperature with a View to Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 17, pages 511-544, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2012. "The Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 59-95, February.

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