How Many People Live Near Protected Areas in Developing Countries? Estimates from Gridded Population Data (2000–2020)

Protected areas (PAs) are the mainstream instrument for biodiversity conservation, but their creation and expansion can have mixed socioeconomic impacts on local populations. While some research has examined the implications of conservation policies, the number of people affected by PAs remains unquantified. We estimate the population living within and near PAs in 2000 to 2020 in 76 countries classified as low- and lower-middle-income by the World bank in 2020. Using Google Earth Engine, we analyze changes in PA-surrounding populations by aggregating population estimates from two high-resolution gridded dataset over the buffered boundaries provided by the World Database on Protected Areas. While terrestrial PA coverage in developing countries increased from 9.3% in 2000 to 12.9% in 2020, our results indicate that the share of the population living within 10 km of a PA rose from 16.4% to 21.8% over the same period. This global average is largely driven by India, due to its demographic size and almost null PA expansion. For the 74 other countries, PA coverage increased from 10.2% in 2000 to 14.1% in 2020, and population living within 10 km of a PA from 26.5% to 33.5%. These figures highlight the magnitude of the socioeconomic implications of conservation, particularly as global commitments aim to expand PA coverage to 30% of terrestrial land by 2030.