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Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections

Author

Listed:
  • Nabil Daher

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper investigates the nonlinear impact of natural disasters on economic growth. Using the Quantile Local Projections (QLP) method on a panel of 68 developing countries over the period 1970-2021, we find that natural disasters have an overall nonlinear effect across economic states. In particular, while some disasters exacerbate economic downturns in low-income countries, high-income developing ones tend to exhibit more resilience to adverse impacts. We argue that the state-dependent effects of natural disasters may be influenced by business cycle phases and structural economic weaknesses, such as sectoral interdependencies and limited economic diversification, especially in low-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabil Daher, 2025. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections," Working Papers hal-04947420, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04947420
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04947420v1
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