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Banning new gas boilers as a no-regret mitigation option

Author

Listed:
  • Célia Escribe

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Lucas Vivier

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées)

Abstract

The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we simulate the impacts of introducing this ban in France under 11,664 scenarios covering major uncertainties. We find that the ban induces major changes in the energy system, leading to efficiency gains. Additionally, we find that the ban increases the likelihood of reaching carbon neutrality while reducing total system cost in over 75% of scenarios. Finally, we show that the implementation of the ban, when coupled with the existing subsidy framework, mitigates inequalities among owner-occupied households but generates adverse effects for those in privately rented homes.

Suggested Citation

  • Célia Escribe & Lucas Vivier, 2024. "Banning new gas boilers as a no-regret mitigation option," Working Papers hal-04538870, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04538870
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7f
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04538870v3
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