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The Risk of War: An Analysis Combining Real Options and Games

Author

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  • Laurent Gauthier

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis, CAC-IXXI, Complex Systems Institute)

Abstract

Real options have been used to evaluate investment decisions with various structures, but have rarely been put into a game theoretical context. We examine the risk of war over a common resource, whose value is a geometric Brownian Motion, where one country may preemptively appropriate the resource, and the other wage war for it. We derive a closed form expression for the optimal mixed strategy that both countries should follow, and show that the resulting price level that triggers capturing the resource and subsequent war asymptotically follows a power law. The present value of the time until that trigger also decays slowly asymptotically. In consequence, in spite of both countries' propensity towards preemption, war may be indefinitely delayed.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Gauthier, 2023. "The Risk of War: An Analysis Combining Real Options and Games," Working Papers hal-04388643, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04388643
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-paris8.hal.science/hal-04388643
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