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The Effect of Mass Migration on Economic Development

Author

Listed:
  • Betul Turkum

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the significant humanitarian challenges of the 21st century, and Turkey is among the countries significantly impacted. This study analyzes the impact of the approximately 3.65 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey on economic development proxied by GDP per capita. Since Turkish provinces faced distinctive rises in refugee numbers after the Syrian Civil War, I exploit the differences in the proportion of refugees across different Turkish provinces to estimate refugees' impact on economic development using a difference-indifferences methodology. To address the potential selection bias arising from the refugees' settlement patterns, I employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. Results offer suggestive evidence of a positive medium-term effect and a negative long-term effect of the arrival of refugees on economic development, while the short-term effect is unclear. However, none of the impacts are statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Betul Turkum, 2023. "The Effect of Mass Migration on Economic Development," Working Papers hal-04362031, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04362031
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04362031
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    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04362031/document
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