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Stated preferences outperform elicited preferences for predicting reported compliance with Covid-19 prophylactic measures

Author

Listed:
  • Ismaël Rafaï
  • Thierry Blayac
  • Dimitri Dubois
  • Sebastien Duchene
  • Phu Nguyen-Van

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Bruno Ventelou
  • Marc Willinger

Abstract

This paper studies the behavioral and socio-demographic determinants of reported compliance with prophylactic measures against COVID-19: barrier gestures, lockdown restrictions and mask wearing. The study contrasts two types of measures for behavioral determinants: experimentally elicited preferences (risk tolerance, time preferences, social value orientation and cooperativeness) and stated preferences (risk tolerance, time preferences, and the GSS trust question). Data were collected from a representative sample of the metropolitan French adult population (N=1154) surveyed during the first lockdown in May 2020, and the experimental tasks were carried out on-line. The in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of several regression models - which vary in the set of variables that they include - are studied and compared. Overall, we find that stated preferences are better predictors of compliance with these prophylactic measures than preferences elicited through incentivized experiments: self-reported level of risk, patience and trust are predicting compliance, while elicited measures of risk-aversion, patience, cooperation and prosociality did not.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismaël Rafaï & Thierry Blayac & Dimitri Dubois & Sebastien Duchene & Phu Nguyen-Van & Bruno Ventelou & Marc Willinger, 2023. "Stated preferences outperform elicited preferences for predicting reported compliance with Covid-19 prophylactic measures," Working Papers hal-04219784, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04219784
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04219784
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